Description

when will people go to mars ?

When Will Humans Actually Set Foot on Mars?

The idea of stepping onto the Red Planet has moved from the pages of science‑fiction novels to the conference rooms of NASA, ESA, SpaceX and countless other organisations. But while the hype is huge, the reality is a complex web of engineering, biology, politics and economics. In this post we’ll break down the current timelines, the key players, the technologies that still need to be nailed down, and what a first crewed Mars mission might actually look like.

1. The “official” roadmap – NASA’s Artemis‑to‑Mars plan

Goal: Early‑to‑mid‑2030s for the first crewed landing.

• 2024‑2025: Artemis II (crew‑ed lunar orbit) and Artemis III (first crewed Moon landing) prove deep‑space life‑support, navigation and surface‑operations.
• 2026‑2029: Lunar Gateway and surface habitats become test‑beds for long‑duration stays, radiation shielding, and in‑situ resource utilisation (ISRU) – all essential for Mars.
• 2030‑2033: “Mars Transfer Vehicle” (MTV) – a deep‑space propulsion system based on the SLS/Space Launch System or the new Next‑Gen Propulsion concepts – will launch a crew on a 6‑month outbound trajectory.
• 2034‑2035 (approx.): First crewed Mars landing, with a 30‑day surface stay planned for the initial mission.

NASA’s timeline is deliberately conservative because the agency has to juggle budgets, international partners, and the requirement to bring astronauts home safely.

2. The private‑sector sprint – SpaceX’s Starship ambition

Elon Musk’s public target: First crewed landing by 2026‑2028.

• Starship is designed to be fully reusable, capable of delivering >100 t to low‑Earth orbit and a sizable payload to Mars.
• SpaceX plans to start cargo flights to the Martian surface as early as 2024, using those missions to map landing zones and test ISRU for fuel production.
• The “Mars Base Alpha” concept envisions a self‑sustaining settlement of up to 1 million people by the 2060s – a bold long‑term vision that drives the aggressive schedule.

Reality check: Starship’s development has already seen several high‑profile test‑flight failures, and the biggest unknown remains a reliable Mars‑landing technique for a vehicle of that size. If Starship reaches operational status by 2025, a crewed flight in 2027‑2028 becomes plausible; otherwise, each delay pushes the date back by at least a year.

Why SpaceX’s timeline is so aggressive

1. Reusability: Rapid turnaround of launch hardware reduces cost per flight dramatically.
2. In‑house propulsion: Raptor engines are designed for deep‑space burns, cutting the need for separate upper stages.
3. Commercial funding: Starlink revenue and private investment give SpaceX a cash flow that can survive schedule overruns.

3. The other major players

• ESA (European Space Agency): Partnering with NASA on the Gateway and eyeing a crewed Mars mission in the 2040s, with an emphasis on European‑built habitats and surface rovers.
• Roscosmos (Russia): Has announced a “Luna‑25”‑type precursor and a crewed Mars concept for the 2030s, but funding uncertainties make the timeline fluid.
• China National Space Administration (CNSA): After a successful Tianwen‑1 rover, China plans a crewed lunar base by the early 2030s and a “Mars 2033” crewed landing as a long‑term goal.

All of these agencies recognise that the Moon will be a proving ground; none wants to skip the “Artemis‑style” rehearsal phase.

4. Six “must‑have” technologies before we can leave Earth for good

Each of these items is a multi‑billion‑dollar effort on its own. The first crewed Mars mission will only happen when **all** are sufficiently mature.

5. The biggest obstacles – beyond rockets

• Radiation exposure: A 6‑month trip can deliver a dose comparable to a whole‑body CT scan. Shielding mass adds to launch weight, creating a classic trade‑off.
• Surface environment: Temperatures dip below –80 °C, the atmosphere is 1 % of Earth’s, and perchlorate‑laden soil is toxic to humans.
• Return‑to‑Earth capability: Unlike the Moon, Mars’ gravity (0.38 g) requires a robust ascent vehicle, most likely powered by locally produced propellant.
• Psychological factors: 20‑minute communication delays, isolation, and confined habitats demand rigorous crew‑selection and support protocols.

Solving any one of these problems in isolation is doable; solving them **together** is what makes a Mars mission a true systems engineering challenge.

6. A realistic “first‑footprint” scenario

Based on the current state of affairs, a probable timeline looks like this:

1. 2025‑2027: Uncrewed cargo Starship or NASA‑SLS missions land payloads at a pre‑selected site (e.g., Jezero Crater) and begin ISRU tests.
2. 2029‑2031: Lunar Gateway fully operational; crew flies a cislunar long‑duration mission that mimics a Mars transit (radiation exposure, closed‑loop life‑support).
3. 2032‑2034: First crewed Mars transfer vehicle launches, spends ~6 months en route, lands using a large supersonic retro‑propulsion system, and stays for ~30 days while conducting scientific experiments and demonstrating ISRU‑fuel production.
4. 2035‑2036: Ascent vehicle lifts off, refuels using Martian‑derived methane/oxygen, and returns crew home.

If all goes exactly to plan, the **first human steps on Mars could happen around 2034‑2035**. Give or take a couple of years for technical hiccups, budget revisions, or political changes.

7. Looking ahead – from “first steps” to “Martian cities”

Even after a successful landing, establishing a permanent presence will require:

• Large‑scale habitat construction (inflatable modules + 3‑D‑printed regolith shielding).
• Reliable power generation – nuclear fission or large solar farms with dust‑mitigation.
• Closed‑loop agriculture – experiments like Veggie on the ISS are early steps, but Martian soil conditioning is still in the lab stage.
• International legal frameworks – who owns a piece of Mars? The Outer Space Treaty provides a baseline, but commercial settlement will raise new questions.

In short, the first human footprints are likely to be brief, scientific, and heavily supported by Earth. True colonisation is a multi‑decade endeavour that will stretch well into the latter half of the 21st century.

Conclusion – When will we really go?

Consensus among space agencies: Early‑to‑mid‑2030s.

Most optimistic private estimate (SpaceX): 2026‑2028, contingent on flawless Starship development.

Whatever the exact year, the **trend is unmistakable**: humanity is moving from “if” to “when.” The next decade will be a proving ground, and each successful lunar mission, each ISRU experiment, and each crewed test flight brings the Red Planet a little closer to our doorstep.

So keep your eyes on the sky, follow the Artemis updates, and maybe start practicing your “one‑small‑step” pose – you might be watching history in the making within the next ten years.

Further reading

• NASA Humans to Mars Roadmap
• SpaceX Starship Updates
• ESA Mars Exploration
• National Geographic: Mars Colonization Debate

What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments: when do you think the first human will set foot on Mars, and what should be the top priority for that historic mission?