are population projections accurate ?

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are population projections accurate ?

Here are some links that might be useful to you:

https://ourworldindata.org/population-projections

https://ourworldindata.org/population-projections
The UN has made population projections for more than 50 years – how …
20 juin 2023Long-term projections are less accurate. Global population projections often perform well when we compare them to reality 5, 10, or 20 years into the future. But over longer timescales, they often diverged from the real pathway. See the chart below, which extends the historical further into the future – to 2030.

https://www.prb.org/resources/understanding-and-using-population-projections

https://www.prb.org/resources/understanding-and-using-population-projections
Understanding and Using Population Projections | PRB
How Accurate Are Projections? The accuracy of current population projections cannot be directly evaluated, but the success of previous global and country-level projections can be examined. Twelve times since the 1950s, the UN has projected the world population size for the year 2000.

https://www.coopercenter.org / research / how-accurate-are-our-50-state-population-projections

https://www.coopercenter.org / research / how-accurate-are-our-50-state-population-projections
How accurate are our 50-State population projections?
With the release of the 2020 Census results in April this year, we evaluated our projections for the 50 states and Washington, D.C. The key findings are summarized below, as well as illustrated in Figure 1. Of all 50 states, the difference between our projected population and the Census count ranges from 0.06% for Kansas to 3.4% for Idaho.

https://statchatva.org/2017/06/21/how-accurate-are-population-projections

https://statchatva.org/2017/06/21/how-accurate-are-population-projections
How accurate are population projections? | StatChat
Because the population projections continued to rely on Virginia Beach’s strong growth prior to 1990, the projected populations for 2000 and 2010 were much higher than Virginia Beach’s actual population in either year.

https://www.prb.org/resources/understanding-population-projections-assumptions-behind-the-numbers

https://www.prb.org/resources/understanding-population-projections-assumptions-behind-the-numbers
Understanding Population Projections: Assumptions Behind the Numbers
More recently the UNPD has developed population projections to 2100, and while the uncertainty in the underlying assumptions grows over time, population growth for the world and in many countries continues well beyond 2050. In fact, in all of the current population projections except the Low Variant, world continues to grow past 2050.

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj.html

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj.html
Population Projections – Census.gov
9 nov. 2023U.S. Population Projected to Begin Declining in Second Half of Century. November 09, 2023. The U.S. population is projected to reach a high of nearly 370 million in 2080 before edging downward to 366 million in 2100. Press Release.

https://news.virginia.edu/content/money-cooper-centers-population-projections-prove-incredibly-accurate

https://news.virginia.edu/content/money-cooper-centers-population-projections-prove-incredibly-accurate
On the Money: Cooper Center’s Population Projections Prove Incredibly …
A. Projections for Kansas were the most accurate, lower by only 1,700 residents, or minus-0.06%. D.C., on the other hand, is our least accurate, higher by 43,000 residents, or 6.2%. Of all 50 states, 21 were projected higher than the actual counts, and 29 were projected lower.

https://www.pewresearch.org/our-methods/demographic-projections

https://www.pewresearch.org/our-methods/demographic-projections
Demographic Projections | Pew Research Center
One aspect of Pew Research Center’s work is population projections, which represent our best assessment about the growth and composition of the future population, either in the U.S. or elsewhere. … the available data are better, and accurate measurement is easier than for others, such as unauthorized or illegal immigration. The cohort …

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02522-6

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02522-6
How far will global population rise? Researchers can’t agree – Nature
Its most recent report, published in 2019, forecasts that global population will continue to rise from its current 7.7 billion and could reach nearly 11 billion by 2100. (Its next biennial update …

https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth

https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth
Population Growth – Our World in Data
Population growth is one of the most important topics we cover at Our World in Data. For most of human history, the global population was a tiny fraction of what it is today. Over the last few centuries, the human population has gone through an extraordinary change. In 1800, there were one billion people. Today there are more than 8 billion of us.
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